Blocking U.S. Steel Is an Unforced Error

The Biden administration is poised to reject Japanese-owned Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel, according to reports in the Washington Post and elsewhere, a decision that appears driven purely by political considerations rather than national security interests. Taking this neo-protectionist stance will bar much-needed capital and innovation in America’s steel industry and alienate a crucial ally in the process.

Democratic Asia must bolster defenses, no matter who wins the U.S. election

NikkeiAsia, 07/14/24

Democratic Asia needs to be more concerned about its own security. That’s one of the key takeaways from the continued uncertainty in the US presidential race. Putting Joe Biden’s debate performance to one side, both candidates have failed to address Indo-Pacific topics in any detail, adding to the uncertainty around U.S. foreign policy priorities starting next year. The threats, however, continue to grow regardless of who wins the election.

How the World’s “Middle Powers” Will Influence Future Conflict

The Cipher Brief, 04/19/24

U.S. President Joseph Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met at the White House last week amidst a rapidly deteriorating global security environment. From Russia to Gaza, Iran to China, a growing number of threats are already straining Washington’s ability to mount effective deterrence and maintain munitions stockpiles.

Stronger relations with regional powers will be critical in how future conflicts are won, lost, or prevented. Washington needs a concerted policy shift to account for this new reality.

The U.S. Still Needs Trade, Even If Washington Doesn’t Like It

Barron’s, 03/04/24

The U.S. is accelerating its pull back from global trade. That’s the concerning takeaway from the 13th biennial World Trade Organization Ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi that ended last week.

The ministerial gathered the world’s top trade officials but produced no major breakthroughs. Meanwhile the threats to free and fair trade continue to mountand could balkanize the global trading system.

India Could Be the Next Engine of Global Growth

Barron’s, 9/15/23

You’d be hard pressed to find countries these days that have the enviable combination of a youthful population, tech expertise, a dynamic start-up environment, and steady gross domestic product growth. China had that once, the U.S. too. Now it’s India’s turn.

Beijing should reciprocate official visits, move ahead with joint climate action

NIKKEIAsia, 7/17/23

The impact of the recent U.S. high-level outreach to China should become clear soon. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry is now in the Chinese capital to pursue cooperation that has so far been elusive.

There has been little sign that China is offering Kerry much beyond an audience. But reciprocity is the currency of diplomatic exchange.

Modi’s U.S. Visit Shows a Warming Relationship. Opportunity Is Knocking .

Barron’s, 6/23/23

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington marks the strongest sign in decades of a warming bilateral relationship driven by current geopolitical realities. The courtship, however, is fraught with limits that have historically kept these two countries at arms length.

Blinken’s visit may not deliver a breakthrough in US-China relations, but watch for positive ripple effects

SCMP, 6/16/23

The American secretary of state’s trip to China is unlikely to produce meaningful shifts in both sides’ existing positions, but that is beside the point. The fact the two are meeting at a high level is a sign the dangerously negative trend in their relationship has at least a chance for repair

Yellen Delivers a Rare Dose of China Optimism. Is Xi Listening?

Barron’s, 4/20/23

Rising US-China tension makes climate cooperation between the world’s two largest emitters unlikely, dashing global hopes. But strategic climate rivalry, with the promise of global influence, more competitive industries and greater national wealth, may prove effective

If we can’t have cooperation in fighting climate change, let’s compete

SCMP, 3/30/23

What does Beijing mean when it says China is ‘open for business’ after zero-covid?

The Messenger, 2/17/23

Policies built around the principles of “Made in China” and “Made in America” may make it hard for U.S. companies to operate in China.

Can the U.S. and China find ways to cooperate on trade?

SCMP, 12/27/22

You’d be hard pressed to find evidence of US and China cooperation these days, considering the intense economic competition and even military rivalry growing between the two. And yet, there are signs that rationality is returning. Recent events in finance and trade highlight an approach based on mutual interests that endures despite obvious disagreements in other parts of the bilateral relationship. They point towards potentially more cooperation in the future.

Biden’s Asia agenda unlikely to change even as midterm election gives House to Republicans

SCMP, 11/18/22

Without control of both the House and Senate, Republicans will struggle to push Biden further to the right on China-related policies. Clear, sustained positions from Republicans could be difficult given internal divisions over policy and whether to support Donald Trump’s run for president.

Investors’ Misgivings About the New China Are Well-Founded

Barron’s, 10/25/22

China’s twice-a-decade Communist Party Congress is over and, as expected, President Xi Jinping solidified his grip on power. Less expected, foreign investors found so little to cheer about that a wave of money rushed out of China-focused funds and equities.

Which countries win or lose as China’s economy slows?

The Grid, 10/11/22

China and growth have been synonymous for so long it’s hard to imagine a world in which they part ways. Due to a rare confluence of events, China’s nearly two decades of rapid expansion appear to be coming to an end.

How a circular economy will let the world fight climate change and ensure growth

SCMP, 08/18/22

The degrowth movement is gaining popularity, but neither people nor countries are ready to stop consuming in the name of the environment. Instead, we can use the power of economic incentives to dramatically alter the type of growth going forward and still head off climate change.

Bloomberg TV Interview on Taiwan

Bloomberg TV, 08/03/22

Interviewed by Guy Johnson and Kailey Leinz on Bloomberg TV about Pelosi’s Taiwan gambit and what businesses need to consider next.

The San Francisco Experience Podcast Interview

The San Francisco Experience, 08/04/22

Interviewed by Jim Herlihy on Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, U.S.-China relations, and what companies need to do to prepare for geopolitical risks.

Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Will End an Era of Ambiguity

Barron’s, 08/01/22

Washington’s policy regarding Taiwan only worked so long as China believed it was weaker than the U.S. That is clearly no longer the case. The era of open-ended China engagement launched by Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the 1970s is also over.

A Tiny Tariff Cut Is the Worst of All Worlds

Barron’s, 07/07/22

The Biden administration will need much bolder action on trade to unwind the mainly punitive tariff war instituted under, and continued since, the Trump years.

Foreigners are leaving China in droves. Does the nation want or need them any more?

SCMP, 07/05/22

The exodus is a sign not only of the heavy toll exacted by China’s zero-Covid policies, but also of the country’s turn inwards as it focuses on domestic expansion.

How rising India’s Quad role is helping it find its place among global powers

SCMP, 06/06/22

New Delhi is moving quickly to take on more multipolar responsibilities as it grows into a diplomatic and economic force within Asia and beyond

Is Washington Finally Ready to Commit to Asia?

Barron’s, 05/25/22

The U.S. is back in Asia, sort of.

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity launched this week. It’s Washington’s latest attempt to resume dialogue with Asia after years of relative neglect.

What decentralized finance can teach the world of business and geopolitics

SCMP, 05/2/22

The crises stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine show the world is sorely in need of greater resilience

Covid Zero is Breaking China

Barron’s, 04/28/22

Fears of instability are on the rise, not only about public health, but also domestic economic growth.

Why Russia and China can’t kill the US dollar

SCMP, 03/29/22

The US dollar’s role as a freely exchangeable currency recognised the world over is withstanding attempts to weaken the West

This Isn’t a New Cold War. It’s Worse

Barron’s, 03/07/22

The world is shattering into regional and ideological blocs that have little reference to the Iron Curtain and the global competition of capitalism versus communism.